Backfire Awards. Bright Ideas. Unintended Consequences.
5 1973 Zu Zuckerman ▲? ▼?

Ethan Zuckerman

The pop-up ad at Tripod.com · Born 1973

The pattern: Great for one, bad for all
5 1973 Zu Zuckerman ▲? ▼?
Ethan ZuckermanBorn 1973 · Tech and AI
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Ethan Zuckerman smiling outdoors, with long hair, glasses and a blue floral shirt
5 1973 Zu Zuckerman ▲? ▼?

Ethan Zuckerman
Born 1973
Tech and AI

Pop-ups began as a fix for an upset advertiser

Ethan Zuckerman, Tripod, late 1990s.

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Spring Street in Williamstown, Massachusetts: brick storefronts, parked cars and a leafy tree on a sunny day
Spring Street, Williamstown, Massachusetts, 2010. John Phelan. CC BY 3.0.

01 The bright idea

Free pages, paid by ads

A carmaker complained when its banner ran on a Tripod member's page about sex. Ethan Zuckerman's fix: open the ad in its own window.

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Gray About page of Netscape Navigator 2.02, the first browser to run JavaScript, with the Netscape N logo
Netscape Navigator 2.02, screenshot by Indolering, 2015. CC0.

02 It worked

A window of its own

The ad sat beside the page, not on it, and others copied the trick. Advertisers bought 11.3 billion pop-ups from January to July 2002, Nielsen//NetRatings counted.

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03 The backfire

Everyone shut the window

78% of 2,667 web users called pop-ups very annoying (GartnerG2, 2002)

Browser makers built in an off switch. Phoenix, later Firefox, blocked pop-ups from its first release in 2002. Netscape and Safari followed within months.

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04 Could anyone have seen it coming?

Partly: users already found them annoying

In a 1999 survey, 69% of users found pop-ups annoying. A web where every site used them was harder to see.

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05 The long cleanup

Still closing windows

Internet Explorer blocked pop-ups by default from 2004. In 2018 Chrome began stripping ads from sites that break ad standards, pop-ups included.

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06 The ledger

Worth it?

It solved one advertiser's problem. It handed the cost to every reader on the web.

What it gave

  • Ads sold on members' pages without setting a brand beside the content (Zuckerman, 2014)
  • Free homepages; about 15 million people a day viewed Tripod pages by 1999 (Zuckerman)
  • 11.3 billion pop-up impressions bought, January to July 2002 (Nielsen//NetRatings)

What it cost

  • 78% of internet users surveyed called pop-ups very annoying, 2002 (GartnerG2)
  • Pop-up blocking built into Firefox, Netscape, Safari and Internet Explorer by 2004
  • $21.8 billion in ad revenue blocked worldwide in 2015 by ad blockers of every kind, one estimate (PageFair and Adobe)
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Pattern?

Great for one, bad for all

One pop-up gets noticed. When thousands of sites use them, readers switch them off, and browsers switch them off for everyone.

Ask before you shipWhat happens when everyone does this, not just us?

One of ten ways a good fix backfires. Learn all ten at backfireawards.com/patterns.

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07 Lesson

A trick for one fails when everyone copies it

Attention is shared by every site that asks for it. A trick for one fails when everyone copies it.

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The pop-up: worth it?

💡 Yes🤦 No

Vote below, then send it to a friend who is building something.

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Worth it?

The pop-up ad at Tripod.com Pop-ups became one of the most hated ad formats. Browsers built in blockers from 2002 (Phoenix, later Firefox) to 2004 (Internet Explorer), and readers went on to block ads of every kind. Zuckerman later called advertising, the model the pop-up served, the original sin of the web.

Impact over time

What the fixes gave and what they cost, year by year. Each measure has its own scale; dollar figures come from separate studies and are not added together.

  1. US internet advertising revenuebillion US dollars per year (nominal) · UScontext
    259
  2. People blocking ads worldwide (desktop and mobile)million active users · Worldcontext
    1100
  3. Share of internet users who block ads, worldwide (GWI survey)percent of internet users · Worldcontext
    37axis starts at 28.9
  4. Share of the world's internet population blocking ads (PageFair)percent of internet users · Worldcontext
    11axis starts at 5.25
199020102030

HarmBenefitProjected

In dollars, where studies estimate it 2
  • Harm$21.8 billion a year Ad revenue blocked by ad blockers worldwide, 2015 2015, estimateOne industry estimate of ad revenue lost to ad blockers in 2015, from a company that sells a fix for ad blocking.PageFair and Adobe, The Cost of Ad Blocking: 2015 Ad Blocking Report (August 2015), copy hosted by gwern.net, in 2015 dollars
  • Harm$54 billion a year Projected cost of ad blocking to publishers, 2024 2024, projectionA projection from an ad-filtering company, not a measured loss.Blockthrough, 2023 eyeo Ad-Filtering Report summary page (previously the PageFair Adblock Report), in 2024 dollars
Not yet quantified 5
  • The year Tripod launched its first pop-up ad: Zuckerman gives none; secondary timelines say 1997.
  • Revenue from pop-up ads in any year: IAB does not break pop-ups out of display advertising.
  • A yearly count of people using pop-up blockers from 2002 to 2010; the global ad-blocking series starts in 2011.
  • Ad-blocking user counts before 2011, and for the US by year on one consistent method.
  • How much of today's ad blocking is a response to pop-ups, as opposed to other intrusive ads and tracking.
Show as a table
SeriesYearValueSource
US internet advertising revenue19994.6 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB, 2000 Q4 Internet Advertising Revenue Report (April 1, 2001), as first reported
US internet advertising revenue20008.2 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB, 2000 Q4 Internet Advertising Revenue Report (April 1, 2001), as first reported
US internet advertising revenue20017.13 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, 2012 First Six Months, Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue20026.01 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, 2012 First Six Months, Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue20037.27 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue20049.63 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue200512.5 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue200616.9 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue200721.2 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue200823.4 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue200922.7 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue201026 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue201131.7 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue201236.6 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue201342.8 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue201449.5 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue201559.6 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue201672.6 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue201788.3 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue2018107 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue2019125 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue2020140 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue2021189 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue2022210 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue2023225 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
US internet advertising revenue2024259 billion US dollars per year (nominal)IAB and PwC, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full Year 2024 (April 2025), Historical data findings, annual totals
People blocking ads worldwide (desktop and mobile)201144 million active userseyeo, Ad-blocking report 2026 (May 2026), page 3 to 5 charts, point labels
People blocking ads worldwide (desktop and mobile)2013240 million active userseyeo, Ad-blocking report 2026 (May 2026), page 3 to 5 charts, point labels
People blocking ads worldwide (desktop and mobile)2015558 million active userseyeo, Ad-blocking report 2026 (May 2026), page 3 to 5 charts, point labels
People blocking ads worldwide (desktop and mobile)2017691 million active userseyeo, Ad-blocking report 2026 (May 2026), page 3 to 5 charts, point labels
People blocking ads worldwide (desktop and mobile)2019764 million active userseyeo, Ad-blocking report 2026 (May 2026), page 3 to 5 charts, point labels
People blocking ads worldwide (desktop and mobile)2021820 million active userseyeo, Ad-blocking report 2026 (May 2026), page 3 to 5 charts, point labels
People blocking ads worldwide (desktop and mobile)2023912 million active usersBlockthrough, 2023 eyeo Ad-Filtering Report summary page (previously the PageFair Adblock Report)
People blocking ads worldwide (desktop and mobile)20251100 million active userseyeo, Ad-blocking report 2026 (May 2026), page 3 to 5 charts, point labels
Share of internet users who block ads, worldwide (GWI survey)202137 percent of internet userseyeo, Ad-blocking report 2026, page 7, citing GWI
Share of internet users who block ads, worldwide (GWI survey)202530 percent of internet userseyeo, Ad-blocking report 2026, page 7, citing GWI
Share of the world's internet population blocking ads (PageFair)20156 percent of internet usersPageFair and Adobe, The Cost of Ad Blocking: 2015 Ad Blocking Report (August 2015), copy hosted by gwern.net
Share of the world's internet population blocking ads (PageFair)201611 percent of internet usersPageFair, The State of the Blocked Web: 2017 Global Adblock Report, quick facts (February 1, 2017)

The pattern: Great for one, bad for all

Each user wins. When everyone uses it, everyone loses.

Each adopter gains from the fix, but adoption draws down or crowds a shared resource no one can be kept from using, so when everyone adopts, the shared result is worse than before.

Ask before you ship

  1. What happens when everyone does this, not just us?
  2. What shared thing gets used up when it spreads?

It counts when

  • Adopting is the sensible choice for each person or firm.
  • The harm comes from the total, not from any one user.

Easy to confuse with

The problem moves, when the harm falls on outsiders rather than on the users as a group. Induced demand belongs here when new capacity fills up because everyone shifts to it.

Cases

In the research

4 sources

Tragedy of the commonsSocial trapInduced demand

  • Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons," Science (1968)
  • Platt, "Social Traps," American Psychologist (1973)
  • Downs, "The Law of Peak-Hour Expressway Congestion," Traffic Quarterly (1962)
  • Ostrom, Governing the Commons (1990), on how communities avoid the tragedy

See all ten patterns →

What 16 backfires have in common

  • 16 Cases tagged
  • 10of 10 Patterns seen
  • 12of 16 Global harm
  • 14of 16 Slow or impossible to undo
  • 12of 16 More than one pattern

Open the dashboards →

Tags for this case

Great for one, bad for allmainThe problem moves
Scale
Global
Time lag
Years
Who pays
The people it served, Bystanders and other groups
Undo
Reversible
Began
1997

Tags from the codebook. See every case in the dashboards.

References

  1. Atlantic 2014
  2. Lycos 10-K
  3. Wikipedia, Pop-up ad; The History of the Web timeline
  4. Verge 2014; NPR 2014; Wikipedia, Netscape Navigator 2; Wikipedia, Ethan Zuckerman
  5. Verge 2014
  6. NNR 2002
  7. Network World, "Ads infinitum" (column), citing GartnerG2
  8. mozilla.org Phoenix 0.3 release notes; LWN
  9. The Register; Apple
  10. McCoy 2007, citing Jupiter Research
  11. Microsoft; UNMC newsroom
  12. Chromium Blog; Coalition for Better Ads
  13. World Federation of Advertisers
  14. Zuckerman blog, August 4, 2004
  15. NPR 2014
  16. Lycos 10-K; Zuckerman blog 2004
  17. PageFair and Adobe 2015
  18. eyeo 2026
  19. Pew Research Center, November 15, 2019
  20. Wikimedia Commons

Image credits

  • Spring Street, Williamstown MA John Phelan, 2010-06-19. CC BY 3.0. Source
  • Ethan Zuckerman (48278826342) (cropped) Joi Ito, 2019-07-08. CC BY 2.0. Source
  • Netscape Navigator 2 Screenshot Indolering, 2015-08-29 (screenshot of version 2.02 running on Windows XP). CC0. Source

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