Backfire Awards. Bright Ideas. Unintended Consequences.
4 1906 Ju Jukes ▲? ▼?

Thomas H. Jukes

Antibiotics as growth promoters in animal feed (aureomycin, 1950, with Robert Stokstad) · 1906 to 1999

The pattern: The cure breeds resistance
4 1906 Ju Jukes ▲? ▼?
Thomas H. Jukes1906 to 1999 · Ecology and Agriculture
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Worth it?

Antibiotics as growth promoters in animal feed (aureomycin, 1950, with Robert Stokstad) Low daily doses given to whole herds and flocks favored the bacteria that could survive them. Resistant bacteria and resistance genes spread from farms to farm families, food and beyond, wearing down drugs people need.

Impact over time

What the fixes gave and what they cost, year by year. Each measure has its own scale; dollar figures come from separate studies and are not added together.

  1. Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animalsmetric tons of active ingredient per year · UScontext
    9700axis starts at 4940
  2. US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) usemetric tons of active ingredient per year · UScontext
    6920
  3. Tetracyclines sold for US food animalsmetric tons of active ingredient per year · UScontext
    6880axis starts at 3030
  4. Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestockmg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU) · 25 European countries (EU and EEA plus UK)context
    161
  5. Global antimicrobial use in food animals (model estimate)metric tons per year · worldcontext
    203K
  6. Danish broilers: E. faecium resistant to glycopeptides (vancomycin)percent of isolates · Denmarkharm
    72.7
  7. Extra daily weight gain in young pigs fed antibioticspercent improvement in average daily gain over unmedicated pigs · US (experiments)benefit
    16.4
19601980200020202040

HarmBenefitProjected

In dollars, where studies estimate it 2
  • Benefit$13.5 billion to 44.1 billion Meat value a worldwide ban on growth promoters would cost (OECD model) per year, at 2012 producer pricesWhat growth promoters are worth to the world's meat output each year, one model finds: the value lost if they were banned everywhere.Laxminarayan, Van Boeckel and Teillant, The Economic Costs of Withdrawing Anti-microbial Growth Promoters from the Livestock Sector, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers No. 78 (2015), in 2012 dollars
  • Benefit$1.2 billion to 2.5 billion Cost to US consumers of banning routine (subtherapeutic) farm antibiotics per year, late 1990sWhat a US ban would have cost shoppers each year, a 1998 expert committee estimated.National Research Council, The Use of Drugs in Food Animals: Benefits and Risks (National Academy Press, 1999); National Academies news release, July 1998, in 1998 dollars
Not yet quantified 5
  • A count of human infections or deaths caused by resistance that started on farms. Global estimates (1.14 million deaths attributable to bacterial resistance in 2021, Lancet 2024) do not split out farm sources, and the share is still debated.
  • US sales of feed antibiotics before 2009, when FDA reporting began; no official yearly series from 1951 to 2008.
  • A yearly US series of resistance in bacteria from food animals that we verified for this page (NARMS publishes one; not yet entered).
  • A dollar figure for the health cost of farm-origin resistance.
  • Yearly mcr-1 prevalence in Chinese pigs before and after the 2017 colistin ban (reported in Wang and others, Lancet Infectious Diseases 2020; figures not verified here).
Show as a table
SeriesYearValueSource
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20097690 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20108230 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20118260 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20128900 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20139190 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20149480 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20159700 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20168360 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20175560 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20186030 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20196190 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20206000 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20215990 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20226250 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20236130 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Medically important antimicrobials sold for US food animals20247100 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20095560 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20105830 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20115770 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20126070 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20136660 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20146790 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20156920 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20165770 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20170 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20180 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20190 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20200 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20210 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20220 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20230 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
US sales of medically important antimicrobials labeled for growth (production) use20240 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20095260 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20105600 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20115650 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20125950 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20136510 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20146600 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2016 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals (December 2017), multi-year tables (2009 to 2016)
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20156880 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20165860 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20173540 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20183970 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20194120 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20203950 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20213920 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20224060 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20234070 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Tetracyclines sold for US food animals20244900 metric tons of active ingredient per yearUS FDA, 2024 Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals, data tables 2015 to 2024 (Excel), December 2025
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock2011161 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock2012152 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock2013146 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock2014156 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock2015140 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock2016128 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock2017109 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock2018106 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock201986.7 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock202091.4 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock202186.5 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Veterinary antimicrobial sales in 25 European countries, per unit of livestock202275.8 mg of active ingredient per population correction unit (mg/PCU)EMA, Sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in 31 European countries in 2022: trends from 2010 to 2022 (Thirteenth ESVAC report, 2023), Figure 15
Global antimicrobial use in food animals (model estimate)202099.5K metric tons per yearMulchandani, Wang, Gilbert and Van Boeckel, Global trends in antimicrobial use in food-producing animals: 2020 to 2030, PLOS Global Public Health 3(2): e0001305 (2023)
Global antimicrobial use in food animals (model estimate)2030 (projected)107K metric tons per yearMulchandani, Wang, Gilbert and Van Boeckel, Global trends in antimicrobial use in food-producing animals: 2020 to 2030, PLOS Global Public Health 3(2): e0001305 (2023)
Danish broilers: E. faecium resistant to glycopeptides (vancomycin)199572.7 percent of isolatesAarestrup and others, Effect of abolishment of the use of antimicrobial agents for growth promotion on occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in fecal enterococci from food animals in Denmark, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 45(7):2054-2059 (2001)
Danish broilers: E. faecium resistant to glycopeptides (vancomycin)20005.8 percent of isolatesAarestrup and others, Effect of abolishment of the use of antimicrobial agents for growth promotion on occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in fecal enterococci from food animals in Denmark, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 45(7):2054-2059 (2001)
Extra daily weight gain in young pigs fed antibiotics196716.4 percent improvement in average daily gain over unmedicated pigsTeillant and Laxminarayan, Economics of Antibiotic Use in U.S. Swine and Poultry Production, Choices 30(1) (2015), Table 1, from Cromwell (2002) and Dritz and others (2002)
Extra daily weight gain in young pigs fed antibiotics20025 percent improvement in average daily gain over unmedicated pigsTeillant and Laxminarayan, Economics of Antibiotic Use in U.S. Swine and Poultry Production, Choices 30(1) (2015), Table 1, from Cromwell (2002) and Dritz and others (2002)

The pattern: The cure breeds resistance

Kill most of the problem and the survivors take over.

The fix suppresses most of a living population, which selects for heritable traits that let some survive it, until the survivors are the problem.

Ask before you ship

  1. What survives this, and what happens when that's all that's left?
  2. Are we relying on one control?

It counts when

  • The target population has heritable variation and reproduces fast enough for selection to act.
  • The fix was applied widely or alone, with few other controls.

Easy to confuse with

The reward gets gamed, which is people adapting to incentives, not populations evolving.

In the research

3 sources

Evolved resistanceSelection pressureAntimicrobial resistance

  • Fleming, "Penicillin," Nobel Lecture (December 11, 1945)
  • Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators, "Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in 2019: a systematic analysis," The Lancet (2022)
  • Heap, The International Herbicide-Resistant Weed Database, weedscience.org (accessed October 2026)

What 16 backfires have in common

  • 16 Cases tagged
  • 10of 10 Patterns seen
  • 12of 16 Global harm
  • 14of 16 Slow or impossible to undo
  • 12of 16 More than one pattern

Tags for this case

Scale
Global
Time lag
Years
Who pays
Bystanders and other groups, Future generations, The people it served
Undo
Slow to undo
Began
1949

Tags from the codebook. See every case in the dashboards.

References

  1. Choices 2015
  2. PSEBM 1950
  3. PSEBM 1950, reference 1
  4. PSEBM 1950, reference 5
  5. McKenna 2017
  6. Choices 2015, Table 1 (from Cromwell 2002)
  7. Codebook definition; Levy 1976
  8. Levy 1976
  9. Levy 1976; Liu 2016
  10. Starr and Reynolds, *Am. J. Public Health* 41(11):1375 to 1380 (November 1951)
  11. National Academies release, July 1998
  12. Courvalin, *Emerg. Infect. Dis.* 7(3):489 to 490 (2001)
  13. Castanon, *Poultry Science* 86:2466 to 2471 (2007), abstract
  14. National Hog Farmer, reporting FDA, January 2017
  15. FDA 2024 announcement
  16. OECD 2015
  17. National Academies release, July 1998
  18. Aarestrup 2001
  19. Liu 2016
  20. Wikipedia, Thomas H. Jukes
  21. Wikipedia, Thomas H. Jukes
  22. Choices 2015, citing WHO 2002
  23. FR 2011
  24. McKenna 2017; FDA 2024 data
  25. FDA 2016 report Tables 9 and 10; FDA 2024 data tables 2b, 3b, 7a
  26. ESVAC 2022, Figure 15
  27. Van Boeckel 2015 *PNAS*; Tiseo 2020 *Antibiotics*; Mulchandani 2023 *PLOS GPH*
  28. File
  29. chicks.jpg
  30. hogs.jpg
  31. plates.jpg

Image credits

  • Baby chickens in a grower broiler house. (25018838441) USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, Texas, 2009-04-20. Public domain (U.S. government work, USDA). Source
  • Antibiotic sensitivity and resistance Dr Graham Beards, 2011-05-30. CC BY-SA 4.0. Source
  • NRCSIA99210 - Iowa (3115)(NRCS Photo Gallery): Hogs being fed in Iowa hoglot Lynn Betts, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service, Unknown (file dated 2011-10-04). Public domain (U.S. government work, USDA). Source

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