Backfire Awards. Bright Ideas. Unintended Consequences.
1 1914 Th Thulin ▲? ▼?

Sten Gustaf Thulin

The one-piece plastic shopping bag (Celloplast, patented 1965) · 1914 to 2006

The pattern: Great for one, bad for all
1 1914 Th Thulin ▲? ▼?
Sten Gustaf Thulin1914 to 2006 · Chemistry and Materials
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1 1914 Th Thulin ▲? ▼?

Sten Gustaf Thulin
1914 to 2006
Chemistry and Materials

The plastic bag: built to last, used once

Sten Gustaf Thulin, Celloplast, Sweden, 1960s.

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Patent drawing of a flat plastic tube with welded seams and punched-out handle shapes, and a finished bag with two handles, signed Inventor Sten Gustaf Thulin
Bag with handle of weldable plastic material, US patent 3,180,557, filed 1962, granted 1965. Sten Gustaf Thulin. Public domain.

01 The bright idea

A bag that won't give out

Groceries went home in paper bags. A Swedish team welded a strong bag from one plastic tube. The patent named Sten Gustaf Thulin.

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Two thin peach-colored plastic shopping bags with cut-out handles and a printed fruit design, one flat and one open
Plastic shopping bags, 2011. Phrontis. CC BY-SA 3.0.

02 It worked

A penny a bag

Rainproof and strong, it caught on. By 2007 it cost about a penny, paper 4 to 5 cents, industry figures said.

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Leafless riverside bushes strung with torn white and blue plastic bags above green water, with round weaverbird nests hanging among them
Plastic bag litter on the Jukskei River, Johannesburg, 2008. NJR ZA. CC BY-SA 3.0.

03 The backfire

Free, so thrown away

328 bags a person a year in Ireland before 2002, a government estimate

Handed out free, bags were used once and tossed. They snagged in trees, blocked drains and drifted out to sea.

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An ocean sunfish swimming just under the surface of calm blue water, its fin breaking the surface
Ocean sunfish, which feed mainly on jellyfish and can mistake bags for them, Greater Farallones, 2015. NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries. Public domain.

04 Could anyone have seen it coming?

Partly: the litter was easy to see

Litter was easy to see, and in 1972 scientists reported plastic in the open Atlantic. In 1986 Barry Commoner asked if society really needed plastic bags.

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05 The long cleanup

A small price, a big drop

Ireland's 15 cent levy in 2002 cut use from about 328 bags a person to 21. By 2018, 127 of 192 countries regulated plastic bags.

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06 The ledger

Worth it?

It carried the world's shopping for about a penny a bag. Given away free, it ended up in trees, drains and the sea.

What it gave

  • A strong, waterproof bag for about a penny, against 4 to 5 cents for paper (industry figures, 2007)
  • Lower climate impact than a paper bag used fewer than 3 times (UK Environment Agency, 2011)
  • 90% of US grocery bags by 2007, an industry group said

What it cost

  • About 5% of Ireland's litter before its 2002 levy (Irish government)
  • Drains and waterways blocked in Bangladesh, which banned thin bags in 2002
  • 42 billion lightweight bags used in the EU in 2018, about 95 a person (Eurostat)
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Pattern?

Great for one, bad for all

For each shopper and store, a free bag is the sensible choice. The cost lands on streets and seas everyone shares.

Ask before you shipWhat happens when everyone does this, not just us?

One of ten ways a good fix backfires. Learn all ten at backfireawards.com/patterns.

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07 Lesson

A small price can change the total

Something built to be reused tends to be used once when it is free. A small price can change the total.

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The plastic bag: worth it?

💡 Yes🤦 No

Vote below, then send it to a friend who is building something.

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Worth it?

The one-piece plastic shopping bag (Celloplast, patented 1965) Handed out free, it was used once and thrown away by the billions. Bags became a familiar part of litter, blocked drains and reached the sea, and by 2018, 127 of 192 countries regulated them.

Impact over time

What the fixes gave and what they cost, year by year. Each measure has its own scale; dollar figures come from separate studies and are not added together.

  1. Celloplast plastic bag productionmillion bags per year · Celloplast (Sweden and its plants abroad)benefit
    760axis starts at 576
  2. Disposable plastic bags per person in Irelandbags per person per year · Irelandcontext
    328
  3. Plastic bags as a share of litter in Irelandpercent of litter items · Irelandharm
    5
  4. Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarketsmillion bags per year · Englandcontext
    7640
  5. Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in Englandmillion bags per year · Englandcontext
    2120
  6. Lightweight plastic carrier bags per person in the EUbags per person per year · EU27context
    94.7
1960198020002020

HarmBenefitProjected

In dollars, where studies estimate it 2
  • Cost of the fix Irish plastic bag levy receipts, March 2002 to June 2013 2002 to mid-2013What Irish shoppers paid in bag levies, 2002 to mid-2013: 203.4 million euros, spent on environmental projects.Dail Eireann written answer, Tax Yield, 16 July 2013 (Questions 743 and 844)
  • Cost of the fix Carrier bag charge proceeds donated to good causes in England October 2015 to April 2026Charge money English retailers reported giving to good causes since 2015: over 234 million pounds.Defra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Not yet quantified 5
  • A yearly count of plastic bags used worldwide. Published figures are rough and range widely (100 billion to 1 trillion in industry and press estimates in 2007; up to 5 trillion in a 2018 UN report as reported by news outlets).
  • A yearly count of countries regulating plastic bags; only the 2018 UNEP snapshot (127 of 192) was found.
  • A dollar cost of bag litter: cleanup, blocked drains or harm to marine life. No study isolating bags was found.
  • A dollar value of what the bag gave: the saving against paper (about 1 cent against 4 to 5 cents a bag in 2007 industry figures) has never been totaled.
  • A long, comparable series of bags in beach or sea litter. Cefas found bags on the seafloor around the UK fell in 2010 to 2017 against earlier years (Maes and others, 2018), but no yearly series was taken from it.
Show as a table
SeriesYearValueSource
Celloplast plastic bag production1969600 million bags per yearNorrkopings Tidningar, '50 ar sedan plastpasen uppfanns' (2015), archived
Celloplast plastic bag production1972760 million bags per yearNorrkopings Tidningar, '50 ar sedan plastpasen uppfanns' (2015), archived
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland2001328 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland200221 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland200322 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland200425 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland200528 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland200631 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland200728 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland200827 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland200924 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland201018 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland201116 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland201214 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Tax Yield, 16 July 2013 (Questions 743 and 844)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland201315 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Tax Yield, 17 July 2014 (Question 485)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland201413 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 October 2015 (Question 726)
Disposable plastic bags per person in Ireland20168 bags per person per yearDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 19 June 2018 (Questions 454 and 455)
Plastic bags as a share of litter in Ireland20015 percent of litter itemsDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Plastic bags as a share of litter in Ireland20100.25 percent of litter itemsDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 June 2012 (Question 582, Minister Phil Hogan)
Plastic bags as a share of litter in Ireland20120.3 percent of litter itemsDail Eireann written answer, Tax Yield, 16 July 2013 (Questions 743 and 844)
Plastic bags as a share of litter in Ireland20130.14 percent of litter itemsDail Eireann written answer, Tax Yield, 17 July 2014 (Question 485)
Plastic bags as a share of litter in Ireland20140.13 percent of litter itemsDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 6 October 2015 (Question 726)
Plastic bags as a share of litter in Ireland20160.23 percent of litter itemsDail Eireann written answer, Plastic Bag Levy, 19 June 2018 (Questions 454 and 455)
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets20147640 million bags per yearWRAP, UK Voluntary Carrier Bag Agreement, 2014 data, as cited in Defra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets20161330 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets20171040 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets2018566 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets2019271 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets2020294 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets2021197 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets2022160 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets2023155 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets2024164 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use carrier bags from England's 7 main supermarkets2025126 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England20162120 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England20171750 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England20181130 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England2019628 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England2020489 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England2021497 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England2022434 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England2023407 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England2024437 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Single-use plastic carrier bags sold by all reporting retailers in England2025399 million bags per yearDefra, Single-use plastic carrier bags charge: data for England 2025 to 2026, Figure 1
Lightweight plastic carrier bags per person in the EU201894.7 bags per person per yearEurostat, Consumption of lightweight plastic carrier bags by their wall thickness (env_waspcb), EU27_2020, less than 50 microns, data updated 2026-05-11
Lightweight plastic carrier bags per person in the EU201992.7 bags per person per yearEurostat, Consumption of lightweight plastic carrier bags by their wall thickness (env_waspcb), EU27_2020, less than 50 microns, data updated 2026-05-11
Lightweight plastic carrier bags per person in the EU202086.2 bags per person per yearEurostat, Consumption of lightweight plastic carrier bags by their wall thickness (env_waspcb), EU27_2020, less than 50 microns, data updated 2026-05-11
Lightweight plastic carrier bags per person in the EU202177.4 bags per person per yearEurostat, Consumption of lightweight plastic carrier bags by their wall thickness (env_waspcb), EU27_2020, less than 50 microns, data updated 2026-05-11
Lightweight plastic carrier bags per person in the EU202267 bags per person per yearEurostat, Consumption of lightweight plastic carrier bags by their wall thickness (env_waspcb), EU27_2020, less than 50 microns, data updated 2026-05-11
Lightweight plastic carrier bags per person in the EU202364.1 bags per person per yearEurostat, Consumption of lightweight plastic carrier bags by their wall thickness (env_waspcb), EU27_2020, less than 50 microns, data updated 2026-05-11
Lightweight plastic carrier bags per person in the EU2025 (projected)40 bags per person per yearEurostat news release, '4.7 billion fewer lightweight plastic bags in 2022', 12 November 2024

The pattern: Great for one, bad for all

Each user wins. When everyone uses it, everyone loses.

Each adopter gains from the fix, but adoption draws down or crowds a shared resource no one can be kept from using, so when everyone adopts, the shared result is worse than before.

Ask before you ship

  1. What happens when everyone does this, not just us?
  2. What shared thing gets used up when it spreads?

It counts when

  • Adopting is the sensible choice for each person or firm.
  • The harm comes from the total, not from any one user.

Easy to confuse with

The problem moves, when the harm falls on outsiders rather than on the users as a group. Induced demand belongs here when new capacity fills up because everyone shifts to it.

Cases

In the research

4 sources

Tragedy of the commonsSocial trapInduced demand

  • Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons," Science (1968)
  • Platt, "Social Traps," American Psychologist (1973)
  • Downs, "The Law of Peak-Hour Expressway Congestion," Traffic Quarterly (1962)
  • Ostrom, Governing the Commons (1990), on how communities avoid the tragedy

See all ten patterns →

What 16 backfires have in common

  • 16 Cases tagged
  • 10of 10 Patterns seen
  • 12of 16 Global harm
  • 14of 16 Slow or impossible to undo
  • 12of 16 More than one pattern

Open the dashboards →

Tags for this case

Great for one, bad for allmainThe problem movesToo stable to go away
Scale
Global
Time lag
Decades
Who pays
The people it served, Bystanders and other groups, Ecosystems and other species
Undo
Slow to undo
Began
1961

Tags from the codebook. See every case in the dashboards.

References

  1. NT 2015
  2. NT 2015; Swedish Wikipedia citing Museum and NT
  3. US 3,180,557
  4. US 3,180,557; NT 2015; Museum
  5. NT 2015; Museum
  6. Museum
  7. NYT 2007
  8. Independent 2019 (quoting the BBC interview)
  9. BBC 2019
  10. PQ 2012
  11. PQ 2014
  12. Guinness World Records, "First country to ban single-use plastic bags"
  13. NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries, Commons file description
  14. WHOI, Oceanus 48(2), summarizing Carpenter and Smith, Science 175 (1972)
  15. 99% Invisible, "Paper or Plastic?" (secondary, quoting the New York Times, 1986)
  16. Defra 2026
  17. UNEP and WRI, Legal Limits on Single-Use Plastics and Microplastics (2018), via IISD SDG Knowledge Hub
  18. EA 2011
  19. Eurostat env_waspcb
  20. Museum; NT 2015
  21. Independent 2019
  22. NT 2015; Guinness World Records, "First one-piece plastic bag"
  23. Wikimedia Commons, Google Patents (USPTO drawing)

Image credits

  • GFNMS - mola mola (30550424153) NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries (photo credited to Sara Heint on the source page), 2015-08-01. Public domain (NOAA). Source
  • US patent 3,180,557, Bag with handle of weldable plastic material, drawing sheet Sten Gustaf Thulin (inventor); Aktiebolaget Celloplast (assignee), Filed 1962-07-10, granted 1965-04-27. Public domain (US patent drawing). Source
  • Plastic bag-Litter-001 NJR ZA, 2008-08-24. CC BY-SA 3.0. Source
  • Hemdchentuete Phrontis, 2011-06-04. CC BY-SA 3.0. Source

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